Why Saudi Investment Hasn't Transformed Newcastle into Championship Contenders

Eddie Howe isn't typically given to histrionics or grand public pronouncements. Based on his usual demeanor, his press conference following Sunday’s loss to West Ham counts as a furious tirade. His side scored first but West Ham took the lead by half-time, as well as hitting the post and having a penalty revoked by VAR, leading Howe to execute a triple change at the half-time.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” Howe stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I believe that was a reflection of where we were at that stage during the match and it's extremely uncommon for me to feel that way. Actually, I don’t think I have since I’ve been manager of the club, therefore I believed the team required a significant change at the break. This explains why I made what I did.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth were substituted at the interval and the team managed to steady to an extent in the second half, but never really looking like they could fight back into the game against a side that had secured just a single victory of their last nine fixtures. Considering how packed the middle of the table currently is, with just three points dividing third from 11th, and nine points between the upper and lower ranks, a sequence of twelve points from 10 games has not placed Newcastle adrift but, similarly, they must not end the campaign in thirteenth place.

The Problem of Expectations

The challenge to an extent is one of perception. With the Saudi PIF, the club have the wealthiest owners in the world. The expectation at the time the Saudi fund acquired 80% of the team in 2021 was that it would have a transformative effect, as the former Chelsea owner achieved at Stamford Bridge or Sheikh Mansour had at Manchester City. The difference is that those two owners took over before the introduction of financial fair play rules (while the current allegations against Manchester City relate to if they breached those guidelines once they were in place).

Financial restrictions restrict the ability of proprietors, however rich, to spend money on their squads and therefore likely might have hindered any Saudi attempt to elevate Newcastle to the level of City. But it wasn't necessary for the club's expenditure to have been so restrained as it has been; they might have invested further and stayed inside the limit – or simply taken a relatively meagre Uefa penalty given their major issue is primarily with the continental than the Premier League rules.

Stadium Investment and PSR Regulations

Additionally, infrastructure spending is excluded from Profit and Sustainability assessments; the simplest way to increase revenue to generate more financial flexibility would be to extend or renovate the stadium. Given the location of the home ground, with protected structures on multiple sides, practically that probably means building an completely new venue. Rumors circulated in spring of potentially making the nearby relocation to Leazes Park – opposition from local groups could surely have been overcome with a promise to create a new park on the current ground location – but there has not been any progress on that plan. There has been significant cutbacks from the Saudi fund on a range of projects as it refocuses on local investments; the approach to the football club seems entirely in keeping with that strategic shift.

Player Sales Situation

The star striker saga was arose from that tension. A bolder management could have portrayed his transfer as necessary to release funds for further spending; instead there was a vain effort to retain him. That meant Newcastle began the season amidst a feeling of disappointment despite the acquisitions of several new players. The start was indifferent: a single victory in their initial six games.

Yet it appeared a turning point was reached. They secured five in six before Sunday, a streak that included convincing wins of a Belgian side and Benfica in the European competition. This explains the performance against West Ham was such a shock. The problem perhaps is that the team's style is extremely intense, very high-octane; a slight drop-off in intensity can have profound consequences. Perhaps the pressure of Premier League, European and Carabao Cup competition, five fixtures in 15 days, had taken its toll. Woltemade started each of those matches and looked especially fatigued.

Reality of Contemporary Soccer

This is the reality of today's football. Coaches have to be prepared to rotate. Howe has been unlucky that the forward's fitness issue has left him lacking attacking options but, no matter how valid the explanations, the weekend's performance was inexcusable –particularly after taking the lead at a stadium ready to criticize its own side.

Howe will hope it was just a blip, an off-day when everybody is off-colour at once, but if the Magpies are to qualify for the European competition in the future, not to mention one day mount an genuine title challenge, they must not be as inconsistent as they have been.

Roberto Arnold
Roberto Arnold

A seasoned crypto analyst with over a decade of experience in blockchain technology and digital finance, passionate about educating investors.