Can Scotland at last end the All Blacks hoodoo?
International Rugby Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks
Where: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 3:10 PM GMT
Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.
Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.
A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.
A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.
Modern Encounters
Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.
During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.
Team News
In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.
Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.
As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.
Missing Players
Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.
The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.
During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.
Squad Depth
Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.
And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.
Coaching Choices
Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.
Past Encounters
Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.
Statistical Analysis
For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.
Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.
Required Performance
During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.
The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.
In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.
Final Analysis
Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.
But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.